Tag: Investing

The Three Conversations Nobody Wants to Have, and Why We’re Going to Have One Today

Posted on by Nkozi Knight

There’s an old saying that you should never talk about politics, religion, or money at the dinner table. Three topics, three landmines, three ways to ruin Thanksgiving.

I get the impulse, but I’d argue it’s also the reason so many families wake up at 50, 60, or 70 years old wondering how they ended up unprepared. We didn’t talk about it. Our parents didn’t talk about it. And the silence got passed down like a family recipe.

So today, we’re going to break the rule. We’re going to talk about money. And honestly, you can’t have that conversation right now without brushing up against politics and a little bit of belief too. Policy is moving fast. Markets are loud. And what you believe about your future is going to shape what you do with your dollars this year.

Let’s get into it.

Where the economy stands right now

Strip away the noise and here’s the picture as of mid-2026:

  • Goldman Sachs Research expects global GDP to grow a sturdy 2.8% in 2026, with the US outperforming at 2.6% on the back of tax cuts, easier financial conditions, and reduced tariff drag.
  • The Fed is on hold. After May’s surprisingly strong jobs report, Goldman pulled its 2026 rate cut forecasts off the calendar entirely. The bank now expects the next cuts in June and December 2027, and doubled the probability of a rate hike to 20%.
  • Core inflation is sticky. Goldman expects core PCE to stay above 3% through 2026 before drifting toward the Fed’s 2% target in 2027. The pressure points: tariffs, Middle East oil tensions, and AI-driven capital spending.
  • Equities are still the story. S&P 500 earnings grew 25% year over year in Q1, with AI carrying a lot of that water, and Goldman Sachs Asset Management upgraded its core equity view for the year despite the macro turbulence.

Translation for the rest of us: the economy is holding up, but the cost of living isn’t getting cheaper anytime soon, and the Fed is not riding to the rescue.

Meanwhile, on the ground

That’s the view from 30,000 feet. Here’s what’s hitting the average household at street level.

Credit cards are flashing red. Americans owe a record $1.25 trillion on their cards, and 13% of accounts are at least 90 days delinquent, the highest level since 2008. The Wall Street Journal called it a shift to “survival debt,” and it’s no longer just lower-income households feeling the squeeze.

Housing is whiplashing. Mortgage rates are volatile, foreclosures are rising in pockets, and HOA fees keep climbing. For a lot of buyers, the math just doesn’t pencil out anymore.

Student loans are about to bite. The SAVE plan is officially over. More than 7 million borrowers are being moved into legal repayment plans, and the new Repayment Assistance Plan launched July 1. If you’ve been in administrative forbearance for the last two years, that grace period is ending and the bill is coming.

Retirement planning is getting more nuanced. With RMDs, Roth conversions, and a higher-for-longer rate environment, the conversation has shifted from just what you own to where you own it. Asset location is becoming as important as asset allocation.

This is what economic turmoil looks like. Not a single dramatic crash, but a slow grind of higher costs, tighter margins, and more decisions that you can’t undo.

Why a plan is the best defense

Here’s the part that connects to politics and to faith, because both shape how we handle hard things.

You cannot control the Fed. You cannot control oil prices. You cannot control which administration writes the next rule on student loans or tariffs or taxes. What you can control is whether you have a written plan, whether you’re contributing to it consistently, and whether you have someone in your corner who can help you adjust when the rules change underneath you.

A plan is not a magic shield. It’s a decision-making framework. When the headlines get loud, your plan tells you what to do next. When a policy changes, your plan tells you what to adjust. When fear shows up, your plan tells you to keep going.

The families I see come through the worst stretches are not the ones with the biggest portfolios. They’re the ones who decided early that they were going to be intentional about money instead of reactive about it.

An essential checklist if you’re in your 40s

Your 40s are the most important financial decade of your life. Peak earnings, peak responsibility, and the last real runway to compound serious wealth before retirement gets close. If you’re in this window, here’s where to focus.

1. Write down your net worth and your goals. Add up your assets. Subtract your liabilities. Then write down three goals: one for the next year, one for the next five, and one for retirement. A goal without a number is just a wish.

2. Automate your retirement savings. Capture every dollar of your employer match. That’s free money and a 100% return before the market does anything. If you don’t have a match, set up automatic contributions to an IRA or brokerage account so you don’t have to think about it.

3. Build a real emergency fund. Aim for six months of essential expenses, closer to a year if you’re self-employed or in a specialized field. Park it in a high-yield savings account so it keeps pace with inflation.

4. Attack high-interest debt. With credit card APRs near 21%, every dollar you put toward a card balance is a guaranteed double-digit return. There is no investment in the market that beats paying off a credit card.

5. Get your protection in order. Life insurance, disability income, and updated will are not the fun part of planning. They’re the part that keeps your family standing if something goes sideways.

6. Optimize asset location, not just allocation. Roth conversions, tax-deferred accounts, brokerage accounts, and HSAs all play different roles. Putting the right asset in the right account can save you tens of thousands of dollars over a lifetime.

7. Revisit the plan every year. Not because it changes constantly, but because you do. Promotions, kids, moves, businesses, all of it shifts the math.

The conversation you need to have

If you’ve made it this far, you already know the answer to the question I’m about to ask. The hardest part isn’t the math. It’s the conversation.

The conversation with your spouse about what you want the next 20 years to look like. The conversation with your kids about how money works so they don’t repeat your mistakes. The conversation with yourself about what you’ve been avoiding because it felt too big.

And eventually, the conversation with a professional who is paid to keep you honest with your plan and steady when the market is anything but.

Let’s talk

If anything in this article hit close to home, that’s your sign. Not to panic, not to overhaul your life this weekend, but to start the conversation.

I help individuals, families, and small business owners build plans that hold up when the headlines don’t. There is no pitch on the other side of the door. Just a conversation about where you are, where you want to go, and what it would take to get there.

Reach out at nkoziknight.com and let’s get the plan started. The economy is going to do what it’s going to do. Your job is to be ready for it.

The economy looks stable only if you can afford to ignore it

Posted on by Nkozi Knight

By Nkozi Knight

There is a difference between an economy that looks stable on a chart and an economy that feels stable in real life.

Right now, the charts are giving people permission to pretend things are fine. The stock market corrected, then recovered. The major indexes found their footing. Some investors are still making money. On paper, that can look like resilience.

But outside of Wall Street, the economy feels very different.

Families are paying more to drive, more to fly, more to ship, more to insure, more to borrow, and more to live. Businesses are not just dealing with inflation anymore, they are dealing with a new round of cost pressure tied directly to energy, transportation, and geopolitical risk. That is the part of this economy that is not getting enough attention.

The conflict with Iran changed the math. Once the Strait of Hormuz became disrupted, energy markets reacted exactly the way they always do when one of the world’s most important oil transit points becomes unstable. Prices did not rise because of one gas station, one refinery, or one airline. They rose because risk entered the system.

That risk has a cost.

It shows up in gasoline. It shows up in diesel. It shows up in jet fuel. It shows up in shipping insurance, freight costs, airline routes, grocery distribution, and eventually consumer prices. Most Americans will never study the Strait of Hormuz, but they will feel it when they fill their tank or book a flight.

The fuel data tells the story. Earlier this year, regular gasoline was below $3 per gallon nationally. By May, it was around the mid $4 range. Jet fuel moved even more sharply. For airlines, that matters because fuel is one of their largest operating expenses. When that cost jumps, the entire business model gets squeezed.

Spirit Airlines became the clearest warning sign. Spirit was already a vulnerable company, but the spike in jet fuel accelerated the damage. Low cost airlines survive on volume, tight margins, and predictable costs. When fuel nearly doubles for some carriers, the math stops working. That is not just a company failure. It is a consumer problem, because when a low cost carrier disappears, the pressure on fares moves higher.

People should understand what that means. Fewer low cost seats usually means less competition. Less competition means higher prices. Higher prices mean travel becomes less accessible for working families.

The rest of the industry is not immune. Airlines are raising fares, cutting routes that no longer make financial sense, tightening budgets, and increasing fees to protect margins. That is not surprising. It is how corporations respond to cost shocks. But it also means the consumer takes the hit again.

This is why the official conversation about the economy feels incomplete. Inflation is often discussed as if it is only a Federal Reserve issue, but this moment is bigger than interest rates. This is about foreign policy, energy policy, corporate pricing power, and household exhaustion all colliding at the same time.

The administration’s defenders can say presidents do not control global oil prices, and that is true. No president controls every barrel of oil or every airline ticket. But administrations do make decisions that change risk. They decide when to escalate. They decide how to use diplomacy. They decide how much economic fallout they are willing to accept. When those decisions increase the cost of energy, the public deserves an honest accounting.

The cost of war is not limited to military spending.

It is also the cost of gas.

It is the cost of freight.

It is the cost of groceries.

It is the cost of airfare.

It is the cost of higher inflation expectations.

It is the cost of forcing the Federal Reserve to stay tighter for longer because energy prices are feeding back into the broader economy.

That is the part that should concern everyone. Energy shocks do not stay contained. They move through the economy slowly, then all at once. A trucking company pays more for diesel. A grocery supplier pays more for delivery. An airline pays more for jet fuel. A family pays more for food, travel, and basic necessities. By the time the average consumer sees the full impact, the decisions that caused it are already months behind us.

Meanwhile, the stock market is giving a false sense of comfort.

Yes, the market recovered. But the recovery has been heavily dependent on a narrow group of companies, especially those tied to artificial intelligence and large-cap technology. That does not mean those companies are not valuable. It means the broader market may not be as healthy as the headlines suggest.

When a handful of stocks carry the market, the index can rise while the real economy weakens. A person’s retirement account may look better for a quarter while their monthly budget gets worse. Their 401(k) may recover while their credit card balance grows. Their portfolio may show green while their household cash flow turns red.

That is not a normal recovery. That is a split-screen economy.

On one side, investors are celebrating market gains. On the other side, working families are absorbing higher fuel prices, higher travel costs, higher food costs, higher insurance premiums, and higher borrowing costs. The wealthy can ride out volatility. The middle class has to budget through it.

This is why the economy feels unstable even when the headlines say otherwise.

A healthy economy should not require people to ignore their own bank accounts. It should not require families to pretend that higher prices are manageable because the Dow had a good week. It should not require small businesses to absorb global energy shocks while policymakers call the economy resilient.

Resilience is not the same as strength. Sometimes resilience just means people are still standing because they have no other choice.

The uncomfortable truth is that this economy is being repriced. War risk is being repriced. Energy is being repriced. Travel is being repriced. Credit is being repriced. Corporate earnings are being repriced. Household life is being repriced.

The question is who can afford the new price.

For too many Americans, the answer is becoming clear. They are working, but not getting ahead. They are earning, but not saving. They are paying bills, but losing breathing room. They are watching policymakers talk about economic strength while their own lives feel more expensive by the month.

That disconnect is dangerous.

If leaders want credibility, they need to stop hiding behind the stock market and start talking honestly about the pressure underneath it. The economy is not just the S&P 500. It is the cost of a gallon of gas. It is the price of a plane ticket. It is the grocery bill. It is the small business payroll. It is the family deciding whether a vacation, a medical bill, or a car repair has to wait.

That is the economy people actually live in.

And right now, that economy is telling us something important.

It is telling us that the country is absorbing the cost of decisions made far above the average household, while the average household is being asked to carry the consequences.

That deserves more attention than it is getting.