There’s an old saying that you should never talk about politics, religion, or money at the dinner table. Three topics, three landmines, three ways to ruin Thanksgiving.
I get the impulse, but I’d argue it’s also the reason so many families wake up at 50, 60, or 70 years old wondering how they ended up unprepared. We didn’t talk about it. Our parents didn’t talk about it. And the silence got passed down like a family recipe.
So today, we’re going to break the rule. We’re going to talk about money. And honestly, you can’t have that conversation right now without brushing up against politics and a little bit of belief too. Policy is moving fast. Markets are loud. And what you believe about your future is going to shape what you do with your dollars this year.
Let’s get into it.
Where the economy stands right now
Strip away the noise and here’s the picture as of mid-2026:
- Goldman Sachs Research expects global GDP to grow a sturdy 2.8% in 2026, with the US outperforming at 2.6% on the back of tax cuts, easier financial conditions, and reduced tariff drag.
- The Fed is on hold. After May’s surprisingly strong jobs report, Goldman pulled its 2026 rate cut forecasts off the calendar entirely. The bank now expects the next cuts in June and December 2027, and doubled the probability of a rate hike to 20%.
- Core inflation is sticky. Goldman expects core PCE to stay above 3% through 2026 before drifting toward the Fed’s 2% target in 2027. The pressure points: tariffs, Middle East oil tensions, and AI-driven capital spending.
- Equities are still the story. S&P 500 earnings grew 25% year over year in Q1, with AI carrying a lot of that water, and Goldman Sachs Asset Management upgraded its core equity view for the year despite the macro turbulence.
Translation for the rest of us: the economy is holding up, but the cost of living isn’t getting cheaper anytime soon, and the Fed is not riding to the rescue.
Meanwhile, on the ground
That’s the view from 30,000 feet. Here’s what’s hitting the average household at street level.
Credit cards are flashing red. Americans owe a record $1.25 trillion on their cards, and 13% of accounts are at least 90 days delinquent, the highest level since 2008. The Wall Street Journal called it a shift to “survival debt,” and it’s no longer just lower-income households feeling the squeeze.
Housing is whiplashing. Mortgage rates are volatile, foreclosures are rising in pockets, and HOA fees keep climbing. For a lot of buyers, the math just doesn’t pencil out anymore.
Student loans are about to bite. The SAVE plan is officially over. More than 7 million borrowers are being moved into legal repayment plans, and the new Repayment Assistance Plan launched July 1. If you’ve been in administrative forbearance for the last two years, that grace period is ending and the bill is coming.
Retirement planning is getting more nuanced. With RMDs, Roth conversions, and a higher-for-longer rate environment, the conversation has shifted from just what you own to where you own it. Asset location is becoming as important as asset allocation.
This is what economic turmoil looks like. Not a single dramatic crash, but a slow grind of higher costs, tighter margins, and more decisions that you can’t undo.
Why a plan is the best defense
Here’s the part that connects to politics and to faith, because both shape how we handle hard things.
You cannot control the Fed. You cannot control oil prices. You cannot control which administration writes the next rule on student loans or tariffs or taxes. What you can control is whether you have a written plan, whether you’re contributing to it consistently, and whether you have someone in your corner who can help you adjust when the rules change underneath you.
A plan is not a magic shield. It’s a decision-making framework. When the headlines get loud, your plan tells you what to do next. When a policy changes, your plan tells you what to adjust. When fear shows up, your plan tells you to keep going.
The families I see come through the worst stretches are not the ones with the biggest portfolios. They’re the ones who decided early that they were going to be intentional about money instead of reactive about it.
An essential checklist if you’re in your 40s
Your 40s are the most important financial decade of your life. Peak earnings, peak responsibility, and the last real runway to compound serious wealth before retirement gets close. If you’re in this window, here’s where to focus.
1. Write down your net worth and your goals. Add up your assets. Subtract your liabilities. Then write down three goals: one for the next year, one for the next five, and one for retirement. A goal without a number is just a wish.
2. Automate your retirement savings. Capture every dollar of your employer match. That’s free money and a 100% return before the market does anything. If you don’t have a match, set up automatic contributions to an IRA or brokerage account so you don’t have to think about it.
3. Build a real emergency fund. Aim for six months of essential expenses, closer to a year if you’re self-employed or in a specialized field. Park it in a high-yield savings account so it keeps pace with inflation.
4. Attack high-interest debt. With credit card APRs near 21%, every dollar you put toward a card balance is a guaranteed double-digit return. There is no investment in the market that beats paying off a credit card.
5. Get your protection in order. Life insurance, disability income, and updated will are not the fun part of planning. They’re the part that keeps your family standing if something goes sideways.
6. Optimize asset location, not just allocation. Roth conversions, tax-deferred accounts, brokerage accounts, and HSAs all play different roles. Putting the right asset in the right account can save you tens of thousands of dollars over a lifetime.
7. Revisit the plan every year. Not because it changes constantly, but because you do. Promotions, kids, moves, businesses, all of it shifts the math.
The conversation you need to have
If you’ve made it this far, you already know the answer to the question I’m about to ask. The hardest part isn’t the math. It’s the conversation.
The conversation with your spouse about what you want the next 20 years to look like. The conversation with your kids about how money works so they don’t repeat your mistakes. The conversation with yourself about what you’ve been avoiding because it felt too big.
And eventually, the conversation with a professional who is paid to keep you honest with your plan and steady when the market is anything but.
Let’s talk
If anything in this article hit close to home, that’s your sign. Not to panic, not to overhaul your life this weekend, but to start the conversation.
I help individuals, families, and small business owners build plans that hold up when the headlines don’t. There is no pitch on the other side of the door. Just a conversation about where you are, where you want to go, and what it would take to get there.
Reach out at nkoziknight.com and let’s get the plan started. The economy is going to do what it’s going to do. Your job is to be ready for it.
Nkozi Knight 